Arsenal Among Champions League Favourites as Arteta Eyes Redemption After Semi-Final Heartbreak

After coming agonisingly close to reaching the Champions League final last season, Arsenal and manager Mikel Arteta enter the 2025/26 campaign with renewed belief — and statistical backing — that this could finally be their year. According to the Opta Analyst supercomputer, the Gunners are the second most likely team to win the competition, trailing only Premier League champions Liverpool.

🏆 Last Season’s Near Miss Fuels Ambition

Arsenal’s run to the semi-finals last season was their deepest in Europe’s elite competition since their 2006 final defeat to Barcelona. A dramatic quarter-final victory over Real Madrid — highlighted by two stunning Declan Rice free-kick goals — had fans dreaming of continental glory. But a 2–1 second-leg loss to eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain ended their campaign, with Martin Ødegaard unfairly cast as the scapegoat.

Despite the heartbreak, Arteta’s tactical maturity and squad depth proved Arsenal can compete with Europe’s best. Now, with a bolstered squad and favourable group-stage fixtures, the Gunners are well-positioned to go even further.

📊 Arsenal’s Champions League Odds

The Opta supercomputer places Arsenal just 4.4% behind Liverpool in terms of probability to win the tournament, and 3.9% ahead of the reigning European champions. This statistical vote of confidence reflects the club’s aggressive summer recruitment and growing European pedigree.

💸 Summer Spending Signals Intent

Arsenal’s £253 million summer outlay has transformed the squad. The deadline-day arrival of Pierro Hincapié from Bayer Leverkusen added defensive steel, while Viktor Gyökeres — who netted six goals in eight Champions League appearances for Sporting CP last season — brings firepower to the attack.

Gyökeres’ hat-trick against Manchester City last November showcased his ability to perform on the biggest stage, and Arteta will be counting on him to deliver in key moments.

⚔️ Group Stage Draw: Familiar Foes, New Confidence

Arsenal’s group includes Athletic Bilbao, Bayern Munich, and Atletico Madrid. While Bayern have inflicted painful defeats in the past — notably back-to-back 5–1 losses in 2017 — and Arsenal have never beaten Atletico, the Gunners are now a different proposition.

Arteta’s side is considered to have the easiest league phase among Premier League teams, giving them a strong platform to build momentum before the knockout rounds.

🧠 Pressure and Possibility

With no major silverware in the past five years, pressure is mounting on Arteta to deliver. The Champions League represents both the biggest challenge and the greatest opportunity. The squad is deeper, more experienced, and more balanced than ever before — and the manager has proven he can navigate high-stakes European ties.

As Arsenal prepare to kick off their campaign away at Athletic Bilbao, the message is clear: this is a team ready to rewrite its European history. And if the numbers — and the performances — hold true, the Emirates may finally witness a Champions League triumph.